***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 2.7 9.5 76.7 53.1 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.3 9.4 83.1 54.8 45.6 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.7 10.1 83.6 55.4 45.6 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.8 7.4 12.0 89.2 57.5 45.8 2.9 5.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.3 7.2 12.5 95.1 60.1 48.3 2.0 4.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.3 12.7 87.0 54.2 44.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.3 9.0 79.4 53.3 44.8 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.6 13.5 95.0 59.4 48.3 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.4 12.7 99.6 62.0 50.3 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.3 7.5 13.8 98.2 61.1 49.9 2.0 4.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.4 7.4 12.1 95.8 60.4 48.0 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.1 11.6 93.3 58.9 47.1 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.1 7.1 12.1 87.5 55.0 45.2 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.1 12.8 87.6 55.3 45.7 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.0 10.6 89.1 58.4 44.7 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.0 11.9 90.9 57.0 45.6 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.3 9.1 85.0 56.1 46.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.6 15.3 95.5 59.4 49.4 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.9 9.7 84.7 55.5 45.7 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.7 18.0 92.8 57.8 48.1 2.3 4.5 7.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.7 11.3 91.3 58.8 47.9 1.8 4.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.4 3.3 9.6 86.8 57.2 46.7 1.4 2.6 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.7 4.7 10.3 86.3 55.8 45.5 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.9 12.8 90.5 57.0 47.3 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.3 12.0 82.6 54.8 45.2 2.2 4.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.3 12.0 86.4 55.0 45.8 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.8 10.7 76.4 52.3 43.5 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 6.5 11.3 91.2 58.4 45.1 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.7 16.6 94.1 58.4 48.8 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.3 9.4 80.5 53.8 44.6 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------