***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 4.1 10.6 115.7 68.5 49.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.0 6.6 10.5 115.0 68.0 50.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.0 10.4 10.6 112.2 67.3 49.2 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.5 10.8 100.4 62.6 48.0 4.0 6.8 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.9 11.4 102.8 63.9 48.2 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.7 11.3 89.2 58.5 47.1 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 4.0 5.5 10.7 119.0 69.2 50.7 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.6 16.9 13.0 105.5 65.1 49.9 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.2 11.9 107.0 65.3 48.0 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.7 13.8 13.0 106.1 65.0 49.0 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.4 11.5 106.9 65.5 50.4 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.9 11.3 105.8 65.4 50.2 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.7 11.8 98.8 62.7 49.5 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.2 12.6 103.9 63.8 47.9 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.2 7.7 9.5 100.7 63.4 48.3 1.8 4.4 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.0 11.3 101.9 63.8 50.0 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.8 10.3 117.1 68.7 50.2 1.7 3.3 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.9 14.3 103.3 63.7 47.7 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 8.3 10.4 112.5 67.1 50.0 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.8 17.0 102.4 63.6 49.1 3.6 6.1 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.8 11.3 114.1 67.8 48.9 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.0 6.5 10.4 114.8 67.9 50.6 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.8 10.7 108.7 65.7 48.6 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.8 12.4 105.3 64.3 47.3 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.4 12.1 110.8 66.8 50.9 2.5 4.5 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.5 11.9 103.0 64.2 49.1 2.5 4.8 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.7 7.3 11.6 113.1 67.5 50.6 2.3 4.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.9 10.1 99.2 62.5 48.0 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.2 16.9 15.2 102.1 63.2 48.1 6.5 11.5 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.1 6.9 10.4 114.3 67.8 50.5 1.8 3.6 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------