***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 0.5 1.8 1.2 1.7 66.7 63.9 -1.7 0.0 1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 -0.2 0.8 0.9 1.4 64.4 62.2 -2.0 -0.5 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 2.2 3.2 1.1 1.5 65.6 63.2 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 -1.7 -1.6 -1.3 2.0 69.2 66.6 -5.7 -3.8 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 -0.4 0.5 -0.8 1.7 66.3 64.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 0.0 0.1 -3.1 2.0 70.2 67.0 -2.8 -1.5 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 0.1 1.0 0.9 1.4 64.4 62.0 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 -4.9 -5.0 -3.3 1.6 65.5 62.9 -8.0 -6.4 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 0.5 1.6 -0.7 1.7 67.1 65.0 -1.3 0.1 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 0.4 1.2 -2.5 1.5 64.7 62.6 -1.3 0.0 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 0.3 1.2 -1.6 1.6 66.3 64.2 -1.6 -0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 0.2 0.2 -2.3 1.7 67.0 64.5 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 0.1 0.9 -2.5 1.5 64.6 62.3 -1.8 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 0.8 1.5 -1.2 1.4 63.6 61.7 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 1.7 2.1 0.1 2.2 72.5 70.0 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 0.9 1.8 -2.1 1.7 66.5 64.2 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 -0.1 1.0 0.8 1.4 63.9 61.7 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 -1.8 -1.1 -3.1 1.3 63.1 61.1 -3.4 -2.1 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 0.0 1.0 0.8 1.4 64.6 62.5 -1.8 -0.3 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -4.6 -3.9 -4.7 1.2 62.1 59.7 -7.4 -5.3 -3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 0.1 1.2 0.5 1.7 66.8 64.3 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 -0.3 0.6 0.7 1.4 64.1 62.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 -0.3 0.6 0.4 1.4 64.9 62.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 0.0 0.8 -1.2 1.4 64.1 62.2 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.8 67.7 64.9 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 0.9 1.0 -2.5 1.8 68.4 65.1 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 0.3 1.5 0.8 1.7 66.7 63.9 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 0.1 0.3 -0.9 2.0 69.9 67.4 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -1.6 -4.1 1.2 61.7 59.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 0.4 1.4 1.0 1.5 65.1 62.7 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------