***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 1.9 1.4 2.2 1.3 64.3 61.9 -1.9 -0.1 1.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.3 65.2 62.7 -1.8 0.0 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 4.1 3.6 2.2 1.2 64.3 62.6 0.6 2.2 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 -2.1 -2.4 -0.2 1.5 67.3 64.8 -6.0 -4.2 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.5 66.6 64.6 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 0.1 -0.7 -2.6 1.0 61.4 62.8 -3.2 -1.7 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 1.9 1.6 2.3 1.3 65.2 62.3 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -4.8 -5.6 -2.3 1.2 63.8 63.2 -9.1 -7.1 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.4 66.5 64.6 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 1.9 1.5 -1.3 1.3 64.8 63.5 -1.0 0.3 1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 1.7 1.3 -0.9 1.4 65.3 63.9 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 0.4 -0.1 -1.5 1.4 65.1 64.2 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 1.1 0.6 -2.0 1.2 63.0 63.0 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 2.4 2.0 0.2 1.3 64.7 62.7 -0.7 0.8 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 2.2 2.1 0.8 1.5 67.7 65.0 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 2.2 1.7 -1.4 1.2 63.7 63.2 -0.8 0.6 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 2.1 1.8 2.3 1.4 65.8 63.0 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.6 -2.0 1.3 64.1 62.9 -3.1 -1.8 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 2.0 1.6 2.1 1.2 64.8 62.7 -1.6 0.1 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -2.6 -3.6 -3.9 1.1 61.8 61.6 -6.6 -4.8 -3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 65.4 63.5 -1.5 0.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.3 65.7 63.1 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.2 64.6 62.6 -1.9 -0.2 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 1.6 1.3 -0.1 1.3 64.6 63.0 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.4 66.0 63.4 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 1.3 0.8 -2.0 1.3 64.3 63.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 65.2 62.4 -1.7 0.1 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 0.5 0.3 -0.1 1.5 66.7 64.6 -2.4 -1.1 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -0.7 -1.5 -2.6 1.2 63.5 62.6 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.2 64.5 62.2 -1.4 0.4 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------