***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.0 77.5 74.8 -1.1 0.1 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 77.4 75.0 -1.5 -0.3 0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 3.6 3.9 2.2 1.8 76.9 74.6 0.8 2.0 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 -1.9 -1.1 0.0 2.4 82.4 79.6 -5.3 -4.0 -2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 0.5 0.9 0.2 2.0 78.7 76.2 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 -0.3 0.2 -2.1 2.2 80.3 77.1 -2.5 -1.6 -0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 77.5 74.9 -1.2 -0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 -4.9 -4.5 -2.2 1.9 77.7 74.6 -8.0 -6.7 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 1.7 2.0 0.2 1.9 77.4 75.3 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 1.5 1.7 -1.4 1.9 76.9 74.3 -0.8 0.1 1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 1.2 1.5 -0.6 2.0 77.7 75.4 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 0.1 0.5 -1.2 2.1 79.0 76.3 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 0.9 1.2 -1.3 2.0 78.4 75.5 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 2.0 2.2 0.0 1.8 76.3 74.1 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 1.6 2.3 1.1 2.4 82.7 80.1 -1.0 0.1 1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 1.8 2.1 -1.0 2.1 78.6 75.9 -0.5 0.5 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 77.7 75.3 -1.2 0.0 1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 -0.7 -0.4 -1.9 1.9 77.3 74.3 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 76.6 74.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 -3.1 -2.6 -3.5 1.8 78.4 73.9 -6.3 -4.9 -3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.9 78.0 75.6 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 76.3 74.1 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.6 75.1 73.0 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 1.2 1.5 -0.1 1.8 76.8 74.5 -1.2 -0.2 0.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 1.1 1.6 1.3 2.2 80.4 77.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 0.9 1.4 -1.4 2.3 81.7 78.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.1 78.7 75.9 -1.3 -0.1 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 0.0 0.6 0.4 2.5 83.0 80.1 -2.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 -1.2 -0.9 -2.8 1.7 76.1 72.7 -4.1 -2.8 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.8 76.8 74.3 -1.1 0.1 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------