***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 12.0 14.2 11.9 4.7 88.1 86.6 5.8 8.1 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 11.0 13.4 11.9 4.6 87.8 86.2 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 11.9 14.3 12.4 4.8 87.8 86.4 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 5.1 8.0 9.7 5.4 90.5 89.2 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 12.1 14.6 10.9 4.8 88.5 87.0 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 11.2 13.8 9.3 4.8 89.0 87.1 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 10.5 12.7 11.4 4.4 87.0 85.3 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 2.1 4.0 9.4 4.6 87.7 85.9 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 12.6 15.2 12.2 5.0 89.4 88.0 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 12.4 14.6 10.6 4.8 87.8 86.4 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 12.5 15.0 11.6 5.1 89.0 87.6 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 11.7 14.2 10.2 4.7 88.8 87.2 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 12.3 14.6 11.0 4.7 88.2 86.6 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 12.8 15.6 12.3 5.1 89.3 87.9 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 11.1 14.9 12.3 6.2 93.4 92.3 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 12.7 15.3 10.8 4.9 89.1 87.6 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 10.2 12.5 11.3 4.4 87.8 86.1 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 12.0 14.1 9.9 4.6 87.2 85.6 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 11.3 13.8 12.1 4.7 88.2 86.7 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 7.4 8.9 7.3 3.8 84.3 82.2 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 12.3 14.8 12.6 4.9 88.7 87.3 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 11.2 13.8 11.7 4.5 88.5 86.9 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 11.8 14.5 12.5 4.9 88.9 87.5 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 12.3 14.7 12.0 4.9 88.2 86.8 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 11.2 13.5 11.0 4.8 88.6 87.1 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 11.9 14.5 9.3 4.6 90.0 88.2 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 11.5 13.6 11.2 4.4 87.2 85.6 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 12.1 15.6 11.1 5.8 91.7 90.4 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 8.1 9.9 9.0 4.3 86.0 84.2 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 10.9 13.1 11.9 4.6 87.7 86.1 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------