***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.5 11.9 10.3 1.6 65.5 62.2 7.3 9.7 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.7 10.3 1.5 64.1 61.2 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 10.8 12.0 10.7 1.5 64.0 61.0 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 4.2 5.8 7.7 1.8 66.4 63.5 0.9 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 11.0 12.3 8.9 1.5 64.0 61.0 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.4 11.5 7.2 1.4 63.8 60.1 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.5 10.2 1.5 64.3 61.2 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.2 1.9 7.4 1.3 63.1 59.6 -1.0 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.4 12.4 9.7 1.4 63.3 60.5 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.2 12.1 8.3 1.3 62.2 59.0 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.6 9.1 1.4 63.3 60.2 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.7 8.2 1.4 63.7 60.4 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.3 8.2 1.2 61.9 58.8 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.1 9.9 1.3 61.4 58.8 8.0 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 11.9 11.9 9.3 1.9 67.5 64.9 6.4 9.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.9 8.4 1.3 62.8 59.7 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 10.5 10.0 10.1 1.5 64.5 61.5 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.9 8.1 1.4 62.4 59.0 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.8 11.0 10.5 1.5 63.8 60.9 6.7 9.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.3 7.1 5.8 1.3 62.9 58.8 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.1 12.2 10.4 1.5 64.0 61.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.0 10.3 1.5 64.5 61.5 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.6 10.6 1.4 62.9 60.2 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.5 12.4 9.8 1.4 62.2 59.1 8.4 10.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.0 11.5 9.1 1.7 66.2 62.8 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.9 12.0 7.3 1.4 65.0 61.5 8.3 10.3 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.3 11.7 9.8 1.7 65.8 62.3 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 10.9 12.6 8.4 1.7 65.6 62.8 7.0 9.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 6.8 7.6 7.3 1.3 62.3 58.8 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.9 10.4 1.5 64.3 61.4 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------