***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.7 11.6 1.6 66.4 62.5 7.0 9.4 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.9 11.4 1.5 65.3 61.7 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.7 12.6 12.1 1.7 66.7 62.7 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 5.0 4.8 9.7 2.0 69.6 65.2 -0.1 2.2 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 13.3 12.9 10.6 1.9 68.5 64.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 11.8 10.9 8.5 1.6 65.0 61.3 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.5 11.3 1.4 64.7 61.4 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 2.4 2.1 9.1 1.7 67.1 62.6 -2.1 0.0 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.1 12.8 11.1 1.8 68.0 63.4 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 13.1 12.7 10.0 1.8 67.4 62.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 13.2 12.7 10.4 1.8 67.6 63.3 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.0 9.9 1.6 66.6 62.6 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 13.1 12.3 9.0 1.4 64.4 61.3 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.2 11.1 1.8 66.8 62.6 8.3 10.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 12.6 12.5 10.3 2.0 69.2 65.3 7.2 9.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 13.5 12.9 9.8 1.6 66.4 62.6 8.4 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.4 11.2 1.4 64.8 61.3 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.2 9.7 1.7 66.4 62.1 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.6 12.0 11.7 1.6 66.0 62.1 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.2 6.8 1.5 65.1 60.9 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 13.1 12.7 11.7 1.8 67.7 63.2 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.9 12.2 11.4 1.4 65.3 61.5 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.8 12.1 1.7 66.7 62.5 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.0 11.0 1.7 66.5 62.4 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.1 10.2 1.8 67.9 63.6 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.2 8.8 1.5 66.3 62.5 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.8 12.1 10.9 1.6 66.3 62.4 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 13.0 12.8 10.0 2.0 69.0 64.8 7.3 9.9 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.2 8.7 1.6 65.6 61.5 3.0 5.2 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.8 11.5 1.5 65.5 61.9 7.5 9.8 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------