***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.9 12.1 0.9 59.6 57.1 10.0 11.8 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.8 11.8 0.7 57.5 55.6 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 12.7 13.3 12.5 0.9 59.5 57.0 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 4.7 5.7 10.1 1.3 63.3 60.3 2.0 4.1 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 12.8 13.7 10.9 1.3 62.9 60.0 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.5 9.0 1.3 62.9 59.4 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.5 11.8 0.7 57.7 55.8 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.8 2.8 9.7 1.5 64.7 61.2 -0.5 1.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.4 11.3 1.2 61.7 59.0 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.6 10.3 1.4 63.0 60.0 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.8 10.9 1.4 64.3 61.0 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.1 13.2 10.5 1.5 64.9 61.4 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.8 9.6 1.3 63.3 59.9 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.6 11.2 1.0 59.0 56.7 10.7 12.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.1 13.0 10.7 1.1 62.0 59.5 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.4 14.3 10.4 1.4 64.4 60.8 11.0 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.9 11.6 0.6 56.6 55.0 9.6 11.3 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.6 13.3 10.0 1.3 62.0 59.2 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.9 12.1 0.7 57.9 55.8 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.0 8.8 7.3 1.2 62.6 59.4 5.6 7.4 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 12.8 13.4 12.0 1.0 60.6 57.9 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.0 11.7 0.6 56.3 54.8 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.4 12.3 0.8 58.4 56.1 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.6 11.3 1.1 60.4 57.9 10.6 12.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 12.3 12.9 10.5 1.0 60.6 57.9 9.9 11.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.7 9.4 1.3 64.6 60.7 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.9 11.3 0.9 59.8 57.2 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 12.5 13.6 10.4 1.3 63.5 60.4 9.7 11.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 7.7 8.5 9.1 1.2 61.8 58.9 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.7 11.9 0.7 58.2 56.1 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------