***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 12.1 13.0 11.5 2.2 79.4 75.9 8.0 9.8 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 11.6 12.4 11.3 2.0 78.2 74.8 7.8 9.5 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 12.3 13.2 11.9 2.2 78.9 75.5 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 5.3 6.5 9.2 2.6 82.0 78.4 0.9 2.7 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.6 10.3 2.3 80.5 76.5 8.5 10.2 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 11.5 12.4 8.5 2.2 80.7 75.7 7.7 9.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 11.3 12.0 11.2 2.0 78.0 74.4 7.5 9.2 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 2.1 2.8 8.8 2.2 80.6 75.8 -1.1 0.2 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 12.7 13.6 11.0 2.3 80.6 76.7 8.7 10.4 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 12.6 13.5 9.8 2.3 80.0 75.6 8.7 10.4 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 12.8 13.8 10.5 2.4 81.4 77.0 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 12.0 12.9 9.6 2.3 81.3 76.6 8.2 9.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.5 9.5 2.2 80.4 75.6 9.0 10.5 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.8 11.1 2.2 78.9 75.3 8.9 10.6 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 12.3 13.7 10.7 2.8 83.7 80.5 7.5 9.4 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 13.1 14.0 9.8 2.3 81.0 76.5 9.3 10.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 11.0 11.7 11.0 1.9 78.3 74.7 7.3 8.9 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 12.3 13.2 9.3 2.2 79.1 74.7 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 11.8 12.6 11.6 2.1 78.3 75.0 7.8 9.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 7.5 8.3 6.8 1.9 78.3 72.9 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 12.6 13.5 11.6 2.3 80.1 76.4 8.7 10.3 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.9 12.7 11.3 2.0 78.3 74.9 7.9 9.6 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 12.3 13.2 11.8 2.2 78.7 75.4 8.4 10.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.4 11.0 2.2 79.1 75.4 8.8 10.4 11.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 11.8 12.7 10.2 2.3 80.5 76.7 7.8 9.5 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 12.3 13.1 8.7 2.2 82.3 77.1 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 11.9 12.7 10.8 2.1 79.2 75.4 8.1 9.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 12.9 14.3 9.9 2.7 82.7 79.0 7.8 9.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 7.7 8.4 8.5 2.0 78.3 73.7 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 11.5 12.3 11.4 2.1 78.3 74.9 7.7 9.4 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------