***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 6.9 11.8 13.6 131.7 73.2 63.8 3.0 5.7 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 5.6 8.8 11.7 125.3 71.4 61.3 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 8.4 14.3 13.5 129.2 72.5 62.7 3.4 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.6 10.0 12.3 94.9 61.6 52.7 3.7 6.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 7.6 12.0 15.0 123.5 70.9 60.5 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.9 10.5 84.0 56.1 49.0 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.9 9.7 12.0 129.1 72.5 61.8 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.6 19.6 17.3 122.1 70.2 60.5 8.0 12.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.1 11.9 15.2 131.8 73.2 62.7 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.9 13.2 17.4 128.0 71.9 61.5 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.7 14.9 119.6 69.6 59.3 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.4 13.7 14.1 112.1 67.1 58.4 4.5 8.3 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.8 11.4 13.6 100.6 62.9 55.5 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 8.9 14.4 17.5 126.7 71.8 61.6 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.3 9.0 82.0 58.5 48.4 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.9 10.4 13.6 108.4 66.2 57.5 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.6 11.0 11.8 126.3 71.6 61.1 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.0 13.8 19.2 133.4 73.7 62.2 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.8 9.2 12.1 123.0 70.7 60.7 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 16.3 20.9 25.0 150.4 77.6 65.8 5.1 9.2 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.3 12.3 14.3 128.7 72.4 62.2 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.7 9.4 11.7 115.8 68.5 59.7 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.2 8.1 13.5 126.4 71.7 60.6 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.3 15.4 16.9 133.3 73.6 62.5 4.0 7.5 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.5 12.8 15.2 128.0 72.2 63.0 2.7 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.7 11.7 90.7 58.6 51.5 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.6 11.4 14.7 135.9 74.3 64.9 2.8 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.5 8.1 10.7 88.4 59.7 50.7 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 21.0 25.3 21.2 140.5 75.5 63.4 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 5.9 9.7 11.8 123.0 70.8 61.4 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------