***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.2 10.4 89.8 60.1 49.6 3.0 5.8 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.4 9.8 95.4 61.9 48.0 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.0 10.5 90.1 59.1 47.1 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.3 10.4 11.6 90.7 60.1 46.5 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.5 10.5 12.1 93.2 60.8 46.7 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.9 12.1 101.6 63.1 51.9 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.6 9.5 93.2 61.9 48.9 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.6 11.7 89.3 58.5 48.1 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.1 12.2 93.8 60.8 48.1 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.0 12.4 93.4 60.6 48.6 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.3 12.1 94.3 60.2 48.1 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.8 11.0 89.5 58.2 48.2 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.5 13.0 101.4 63.2 52.0 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.5 13.1 12.4 83.7 56.0 44.0 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.7 11.1 10.3 91.8 61.3 48.1 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.7 12.1 97.4 61.5 49.3 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.1 9.7 94.1 61.3 46.7 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.4 13.0 90.9 59.1 47.6 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.5 10.1 94.6 61.2 47.8 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.2 15.9 91.9 59.4 48.7 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.4 11.8 93.6 61.0 48.0 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.0 10.1 91.7 60.2 46.1 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.4 10.4 88.9 58.6 45.8 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.4 12.0 87.0 57.3 45.3 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.9 12.5 92.4 60.8 48.8 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.6 11.8 94.3 60.1 50.7 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.6 11.0 89.6 59.9 49.4 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.5 10.6 91.8 60.9 47.4 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 14.2 14.1 90.5 58.6 47.6 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.4 9.7 93.2 61.2 48.7 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------