***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9.1 21.4 33.2 247.5 93.5 68.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 7.6 17.6 29.9 252.1 93.0 67.4 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 11.8 28.9 33.1 248.3 93.0 69.1 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.1 27.6 34.6 247.5 92.5 70.8 2.9 5.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 11.5 28.4 35.0 238.9 92.1 71.2 2.0 4.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 10.2 22.6 33.9 234.5 92.1 72.6 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 6.3 15.3 30.0 256.9 93.5 67.4 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 19.2 39.3 35.8 223.4 90.4 70.4 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 8.6 19.1 35.6 230.5 91.4 71.0 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 12.0 28.2 37.5 228.0 91.1 71.1 2.0 4.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 11.5 27.2 33.3 235.3 91.7 70.9 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 9.3 19.0 31.6 224.6 90.4 70.4 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 12.6 27.3 35.4 233.4 92.0 71.2 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.3 41.2 42.7 251.0 93.1 69.8 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 9.4 20.9 30.7 243.4 91.6 69.3 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 10.9 23.1 33.9 239.7 92.2 71.3 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.5 13.3 29.9 259.7 93.3 67.8 1.4 2.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 10.4 25.4 41.0 235.2 91.9 70.3 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 8.6 18.8 30.6 248.8 92.8 67.1 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 9.0 19.6 48.9 236.2 91.8 70.4 2.3 4.5 7.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 9.3 23.7 34.3 240.6 92.4 70.2 1.8 4.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.5 12.1 29.9 246.4 92.2 66.3 1.4 2.6 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 8.9 21.9 33.5 250.7 93.0 67.1 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 14.2 36.0 38.4 241.0 92.2 69.8 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 9.9 23.9 37.0 246.4 93.2 69.3 2.2 4.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 8.2 18.4 33.5 230.3 91.2 70.0 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 9.2 22.4 35.0 246.6 93.6 68.9 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.3 23.6 32.2 244.4 92.1 70.8 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 16.1 40.3 44.6 241.4 92.5 70.3 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 7.9 17.9 30.8 251.5 93.1 67.9 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------