***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 2.9 3.7 16.4 120.7 69.8 55.3 1.5 2.3 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.0 7.9 15.6 131.8 73.2 56.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 11.0 15.9 117.9 68.9 54.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.8 15.2 102.2 63.4 51.7 4.0 6.8 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.2 14.8 99.2 61.7 51.3 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.6 14.9 90.8 57.6 49.8 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.6 15.7 136.6 74.6 56.7 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.8 14.4 88.7 56.3 48.5 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.8 15.3 97.8 61.1 51.3 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.3 15.5 91.7 57.7 49.8 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.8 13.2 90.8 57.7 48.5 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.6 13.1 90.5 57.3 48.0 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.8 15.2 94.1 58.9 49.8 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.9 20.5 118.0 68.7 55.5 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.2 8.0 14.1 101.7 64.4 49.7 1.8 4.4 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.8 14.0 92.5 58.7 49.3 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 6.3 7.4 15.9 143.4 76.5 57.6 1.7 3.3 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.6 17.4 95.6 59.0 50.6 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 9.9 15.8 128.1 72.1 56.7 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.3 19.0 90.2 56.4 49.0 3.6 6.1 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.0 15.5 106.9 64.8 52.8 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 7.3 8.2 16.3 136.9 74.7 57.8 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.4 8.0 16.7 124.4 70.9 56.4 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.1 17.8 109.1 65.2 53.1 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.7 17.5 115.1 67.9 54.9 2.5 4.5 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.9 13.8 88.6 56.6 47.2 2.5 4.8 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.9 17.3 121.2 70.0 56.0 2.3 4.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.8 14.1 97.4 62.0 50.2 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.2 18.4 96.4 59.4 50.7 6.5 11.5 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.0 7.9 15.8 127.8 72.0 56.2 1.8 3.6 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------