***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 35.3 46.2 73.6 150.5 84.2 67.8 18.6 25.3 32.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 37.6 52.1 67.0 154.8 85.1 67.5 16.2 24.1 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 52.8 71.1 73.0 149.3 83.5 67.7 22.9 34.1 47.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 50.5 57.3 73.7 134.9 77.7 63.8 28.2 37.3 47.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 49.8 59.0 76.9 140.6 80.7 66.6 26.9 35.8 45.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 42.9 49.7 71.4 129.2 76.6 65.1 20.3 29.3 40.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 33.6 47.0 67.3 157.6 85.9 66.9 16.4 23.2 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 75.5 82.3 79.2 132.9 78.3 66.4 50.1 60.3 71.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 45.6 54.0 78.3 140.7 81.0 66.8 23.4 31.8 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 54.7 62.7 82.8 137.3 80.4 67.0 29.7 39.3 49.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 49.1 58.0 73.6 136.2 79.3 66.5 22.8 32.8 44.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 49.0 55.4 69.8 130.6 76.8 65.8 24.2 33.8 45.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 49.6 56.4 77.2 133.9 78.7 67.0 25.7 34.8 45.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 67.3 86.5 93.1 147.7 84.2 67.5 31.7 44.7 59.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 48.8 55.5 64.1 131.7 74.7 62.1 15.1 27.1 43.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 44.6 51.3 73.5 135.6 79.0 66.4 24.8 32.8 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 33.8 48.5 67.2 159.3 86.4 66.2 16.3 23.1 31.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 50.8 61.4 90.6 140.7 82.2 67.1 25.6 34.9 45.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 41.8 55.8 68.6 152.0 84.4 67.7 19.4 27.8 37.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 52.6 66.3 108.7 143.2 83.2 68.6 25.7 35.9 47.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 46.8 59.8 75.9 144.6 81.8 67.1 21.7 31.4 42.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 36.0 47.4 67.8 150.7 83.5 65.8 17.0 24.3 32.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 37.3 49.2 74.2 150.7 84.4 67.8 17.6 25.0 33.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 62.5 78.3 85.1 144.9 82.9 67.3 30.0 42.1 56.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 44.2 59.3 82.2 147.8 83.2 67.5 21.0 30.3 41.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 41.7 45.7 70.8 127.5 75.6 64.1 22.4 30.1 38.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 39.6 54.4 78.0 151.2 84.7 68.2 19.0 27.0 36.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 43.9 50.6 67.6 131.8 75.9 63.1 18.3 28.1 40.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 80.6 98.5 98.3 143.8 83.7 67.9 43.2 57.2 72.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 40.2 53.7 68.1 152.6 84.4 67.7 18.5 26.6 36.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------