***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 2.3 5.1 3.8 4.7 93.4 91.0 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 1.5 4.2 3.3 4.4 92.1 89.6 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 3.6 5.9 3.4 4.3 92.2 89.5 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -1.6 0.5 0.9 4.6 89.8 88.0 -6.7 -4.8 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 0.9 2.6 1.5 4.5 89.0 86.9 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 0.1 1.5 -0.6 4.6 86.4 84.8 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 1.7 4.5 3.4 4.7 92.6 90.2 -3.2 -1.4 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 -4.6 -2.9 -0.3 4.7 86.7 84.8 -9.6 -7.7 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 1.8 3.6 1.8 4.3 88.8 87.0 -2.7 -1.0 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 1.4 2.9 0.4 4.7 87.3 85.2 -2.6 -1.1 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 1.3 2.9 0.8 4.2 87.8 85.5 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 0.3 1.8 0.5 4.4 87.0 85.3 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 1.2 2.5 0.1 4.1 84.7 82.6 -3.5 -1.7 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 1.9 3.1 1.3 4.2 86.6 84.3 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 1.4 3.5 2.1 4.2 91.4 89.7 -2.8 -1.2 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 1.9 3.3 0.4 4.0 86.7 84.5 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 1.6 4.0 3.2 4.5 90.7 88.7 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 4.6 86.0 83.8 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 1.6 4.1 3.1 4.2 91.7 88.9 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 -3.1 -0.8 -1.8 4.5 85.7 83.2 -9.4 -6.9 -4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 1.8 4.1 3.2 4.5 91.5 89.3 -2.8 -1.2 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 1.2 3.6 3.1 4.3 91.1 88.8 -3.7 -1.9 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 0.8 2.6 2.6 3.9 90.0 87.2 -3.4 -1.8 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 1.0 2.3 1.4 4.3 87.1 84.9 -2.9 -1.5 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 1.4 3.6 2.8 4.8 91.4 89.1 -3.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 1.2 2.5 0.1 4.3 85.5 83.8 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 2.3 5.0 3.3 4.9 91.8 89.6 -3.0 -1.1 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 -0.1 1.6 1.3 4.2 89.4 87.5 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 -1.3 0.0 -1.3 4.3 83.9 81.2 -5.8 -4.0 -2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 2.0 4.8 3.5 4.5 92.8 90.0 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------