***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 2.1 3.0 3.3 2.0 76.2 70.6 -1.5 0.2 1.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 2.1 2.8 2.9 1.8 75.0 70.4 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 4.2 5.0 2.9 1.9 76.0 70.7 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 -2.0 -1.4 0.7 2.1 76.7 72.6 -5.7 -4.1 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 0.8 1.3 0.7 2.1 75.1 70.7 -2.0 -0.7 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 0.3 0.4 -1.4 2.3 73.9 71.5 -2.9 -1.6 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.9 3.0 1.9 75.8 70.9 -1.1 0.5 1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -4.7 -4.7 -1.6 1.8 69.8 67.0 -8.5 -6.7 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 2.1 2.6 1.2 2.0 73.9 69.4 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 2.0 2.2 -0.6 1.9 71.4 67.5 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 1.7 2.0 0.2 2.0 73.9 69.8 -1.1 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 0.4 0.6 -0.2 2.0 72.7 69.5 -2.4 -1.1 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 1.3 1.6 -0.5 2.2 74.7 71.3 -1.5 -0.2 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 2.5 2.7 0.7 1.6 70.1 65.8 -0.5 1.0 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 2.3 2.8 1.3 2.0 77.1 73.4 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 2.3 2.7 0.0 2.2 75.5 71.6 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 2.3 2.8 2.8 1.8 73.3 69.3 -0.7 0.7 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 0.0 0.0 -1.5 1.7 68.6 65.0 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.9 2.8 1.8 74.7 70.0 -1.3 0.4 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -3.7 -2.9 -3.9 1.5 64.9 62.5 -5.8 -4.2 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.0 75.5 70.4 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 1.8 2.3 2.7 1.8 73.1 69.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.7 73.8 69.0 -1.5 0.0 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 1.8 2.0 0.6 1.7 71.1 66.9 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.1 76.5 71.8 -1.4 0.1 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 1.4 1.7 -0.3 2.0 73.5 70.7 -1.4 -0.2 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 76.2 71.0 -1.4 0.3 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 0.6 1.1 0.9 2.1 76.5 72.6 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -1.1 -2.5 1.6 66.1 63.2 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 2.5 3.3 3.0 1.9 76.0 70.9 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------