***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 12.2 13.8 11.2 3.9 84.2 81.4 6.2 8.5 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 11.1 12.4 10.9 3.5 82.0 79.4 5.0 7.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 12.1 13.7 11.4 3.8 83.1 80.1 6.1 8.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 5.2 7.0 8.9 4.2 84.4 81.1 -0.4 1.8 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 12.2 14.0 10.1 4.2 84.7 81.1 6.2 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 11.2 13.4 9.0 4.5 87.3 83.5 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 10.8 12.1 10.7 3.6 82.8 80.2 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 1.7 3.1 8.7 3.9 83.4 79.4 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 12.7 14.5 11.1 4.2 84.6 81.3 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 12.4 14.1 9.8 4.2 83.8 80.2 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 12.6 14.4 10.3 4.4 85.1 81.6 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 11.5 13.2 9.4 4.0 84.0 80.4 6.3 8.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 12.3 14.0 9.9 4.1 85.0 81.3 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.9 10.5 3.5 79.3 76.0 6.6 9.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 11.4 13.1 10.8 4.3 84.9 82.3 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 12.9 14.8 10.0 4.3 85.8 82.3 7.1 9.4 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 10.2 11.3 10.3 3.3 80.9 78.5 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 11.6 13.2 8.9 3.7 81.6 77.8 6.5 8.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 11.2 12.6 11.0 3.5 81.8 79.0 5.1 7.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 6.4 7.9 6.4 3.2 79.5 75.0 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 12.4 14.1 11.5 4.1 84.2 81.0 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 11.1 12.2 10.4 3.1 79.7 77.1 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 11.8 13.2 11.0 3.5 81.4 78.4 5.7 8.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 12.1 13.6 10.6 3.7 81.4 77.9 6.7 9.0 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 11.2 12.9 10.1 4.0 84.3 81.1 5.5 7.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 11.4 13.0 8.5 3.7 84.0 80.1 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 11.7 13.2 10.6 3.9 84.1 81.3 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 12.4 14.4 10.0 4.3 84.8 81.6 5.8 8.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 7.3 9.0 7.8 3.4 80.1 76.0 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 11.0 12.4 11.0 3.6 82.7 80.1 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------