***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.8 12.0 11.3 1.5 65.5 62.5 7.8 10.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.2 11.1 1.3 63.6 61.1 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.7 11.5 1.5 65.2 62.2 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 4.8 5.0 10.0 1.9 68.6 65.0 0.2 2.5 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 13.0 12.9 10.1 1.8 67.1 63.8 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.4 8.8 2.1 69.3 65.9 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.8 10.9 1.3 63.5 61.1 8.1 10.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.1 1.9 8.4 1.4 63.4 61.1 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.7 10.6 1.7 65.8 62.8 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.5 9.2 1.5 64.1 61.5 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.7 9.8 1.7 66.6 63.6 8.3 10.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.9 9.5 1.6 65.6 63.0 7.9 10.0 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 12.8 12.8 9.2 1.9 67.6 64.7 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.8 10.2 1.3 62.4 60.1 8.8 11.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.6 10.4 2.0 69.7 66.1 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.2 9.7 1.9 68.0 64.8 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.5 10.6 1.2 62.5 60.3 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.9 8.4 1.2 61.7 59.6 8.1 10.4 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.2 11.3 1.3 63.9 61.3 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.7 5.7 0.8 57.9 56.5 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.8 11.1 1.7 66.2 63.0 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.2 10.9 1.2 62.6 60.5 8.4 10.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.8 11.4 1.4 64.0 61.4 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.8 10.2 1.4 63.2 60.7 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 12.4 12.3 10.0 1.6 66.7 63.4 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 12.4 12.5 8.9 1.8 67.6 64.9 8.5 10.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.2 12.3 10.5 1.5 65.4 62.4 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 12.5 12.9 10.4 2.0 69.6 65.9 7.6 10.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.7 7.3 1.0 59.8 58.1 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.0 12.0 11.2 1.3 64.2 61.5 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------