***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 12.4 13.4 11.6 2.3 80.4 77.7 8.4 10.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.7 11.3 2.0 78.1 75.6 8.3 9.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 12.7 13.6 11.7 2.2 79.5 76.7 8.8 10.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 5.5 6.6 9.8 2.6 81.4 78.7 1.2 3.0 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 13.0 13.9 10.3 2.6 81.2 78.4 8.9 10.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 11.9 13.1 9.0 2.9 83.9 81.2 8.0 9.6 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 11.6 12.4 11.2 2.1 78.8 76.3 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 2.0 2.7 8.7 2.2 78.3 75.6 -0.9 0.4 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 13.0 13.9 10.9 2.5 80.7 77.9 9.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 12.8 13.7 9.6 2.4 79.3 76.4 9.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 13.1 14.1 10.2 2.6 81.5 78.8 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 12.1 13.0 9.7 2.4 80.1 77.5 8.5 10.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 13.0 14.0 9.6 2.6 81.9 79.3 9.3 10.8 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.6 10.5 2.0 75.3 72.5 9.3 11.0 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 12.6 13.6 10.5 2.6 81.7 79.2 7.9 9.8 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 13.5 14.5 10.0 2.7 82.4 79.8 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.8 10.8 1.9 76.8 74.5 7.7 9.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 12.3 13.0 8.9 2.1 76.4 73.4 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 12.1 12.8 11.5 2.0 77.8 75.3 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.5 7.9 6.2 1.7 72.7 69.8 4.4 5.9 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 12.9 13.8 11.5 2.4 80.7 77.9 9.0 10.6 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 12.0 12.7 11.0 1.8 75.6 73.2 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 12.5 13.3 11.5 2.1 77.4 74.8 8.9 10.5 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.5 13.4 10.5 2.2 77.3 74.4 9.2 10.7 12.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 12.1 13.1 10.2 2.4 80.8 78.1 8.2 9.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 12.5 13.3 8.9 2.4 81.1 78.6 9.0 10.4 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 12.3 13.2 10.8 2.3 80.3 77.6 8.5 10.1 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 13.2 14.4 10.3 2.7 81.9 79.3 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 7.7 8.2 7.7 1.9 74.3 71.4 4.4 5.9 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 11.8 12.6 11.5 2.1 78.9 76.3 8.2 9.8 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------