***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 13.9 23.2 18.0 203.1 87.1 75.1 2.8 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 13.2 19.2 17.8 189.4 85.0 74.7 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 16.7 26.6 17.4 186.9 85.1 72.0 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 16.1 21.7 17.2 174.8 82.6 67.2 5.4 9.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 16.5 23.1 18.4 173.8 83.3 70.0 5.3 9.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 11.1 12.4 18.2 138.1 75.1 65.3 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 11.9 17.1 18.0 191.9 85.2 75.2 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 24.7 30.6 20.0 155.2 79.0 68.2 8.3 14.0 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 13.2 17.2 18.1 165.7 81.7 68.3 4.5 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.4 19.5 19.2 156.2 79.5 67.3 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.0 15.5 16.2 156.6 79.3 66.7 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.2 14.8 16.8 153.2 78.6 67.5 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 11.9 14.0 17.4 148.2 77.8 67.1 3.7 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 24.3 34.0 21.0 169.8 82.1 69.4 6.4 12.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 15.7 23.7 18.6 188.4 84.5 72.9 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.9 15.0 16.2 151.2 78.2 67.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 10.0 13.6 17.5 183.4 84.0 74.2 3.4 5.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 15.1 18.7 21.9 157.0 79.6 69.4 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 14.0 20.1 17.5 186.3 84.6 73.4 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 16.5 20.9 29.6 166.0 81.1 72.9 5.2 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 15.6 21.3 17.0 175.6 83.5 69.3 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 12.2 15.9 17.5 174.2 82.4 73.4 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 12.6 18.2 17.6 180.4 83.9 71.0 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 19.9 25.7 19.6 166.7 81.6 69.2 6.6 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 15.0 24.4 21.1 202.2 87.5 76.0 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 10.9 13.8 19.0 158.3 79.6 69.6 2.9 5.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 13.0 21.8 20.5 204.7 87.5 76.4 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 13.4 18.4 16.8 167.7 81.1 68.1 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 22.5 27.3 24.6 158.1 79.6 70.3 7.5 12.4 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 14.3 21.7 17.9 192.8 85.6 74.5 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------