***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 7.5 8.7 16.3 141.9 76.6 60.0 2.4 4.2 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 7.9 9.4 15.4 143.9 77.0 63.3 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 11.6 12.9 15.8 133.7 73.9 59.5 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.3 13.6 19.3 139.5 75.5 58.0 3.5 6.3 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.4 9.9 18.5 127.7 71.9 55.2 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.2 17.8 112.6 66.3 55.2 2.3 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 6.8 7.9 15.3 147.0 78.1 63.9 1.8 3.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 17.4 19.2 126.6 71.6 56.6 4.9 9.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 10.0 17.9 121.6 69.8 53.9 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.6 10.9 18.8 120.5 69.4 54.8 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.1 16.4 121.8 69.9 54.2 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 8.9 16.2 125.3 71.1 55.6 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.3 11.4 17.0 119.0 68.8 56.0 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.3 13.1 17.8 119.0 68.8 57.9 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 10.3 11.9 18.1 140.0 75.5 58.7 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.4 10.2 16.3 120.8 69.5 55.3 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 6.7 7.6 15.2 144.3 77.1 63.8 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.9 20.2 118.1 68.4 55.5 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.9 10.3 15.3 138.8 75.4 62.3 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.5 8.3 26.0 129.8 72.6 59.5 2.4 4.3 6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.6 10.4 16.7 128.2 72.1 56.0 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.9 6.7 15.7 139.2 75.4 62.8 1.3 2.7 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 8.4 9.1 15.3 129.4 72.5 60.4 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.5 11.8 17.6 118.5 68.6 56.3 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 9.5 10.8 19.7 139.4 76.2 59.8 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.8 6.9 16.5 121.0 69.7 57.2 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 9.9 11.3 18.4 141.6 76.8 61.1 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.9 11.0 17.9 133.6 73.6 57.5 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 14.9 21.8 119.8 69.0 56.6 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 7.4 8.8 15.5 142.9 76.8 62.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------