***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 5.9 6.3 14.1 132.1 73.3 63.1 2.3 3.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 8.2 8.9 13.4 134.6 74.0 63.0 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 11.7 12.6 14.2 130.7 73.0 62.6 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 11.5 12.0 18.0 130.2 72.9 61.5 4.6 7.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.2 16.5 120.9 70.2 59.6 4.5 7.3 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.7 17.4 111.7 66.9 56.5 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 7.8 8.0 13.1 129.4 72.5 61.8 2.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 17.8 14.7 103.9 64.2 55.1 7.9 12.6 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 10.7 10.6 15.7 118.7 69.8 59.2 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.2 13.6 15.6 110.8 66.7 56.8 4.6 8.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.7 14.0 108.7 66.0 55.9 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.2 13.0 102.9 64.0 54.3 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 11.4 10.2 15.4 110.2 66.2 55.9 4.0 6.7 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.7 12.9 16.9 128.3 72.2 61.6 3.6 6.7 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 10.0 10.6 16.7 130.0 73.0 59.9 1.6 4.1 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 10.3 9.1 14.7 110.3 66.5 55.8 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.5 12.5 131.3 73.0 61.8 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.7 11.7 17.1 114.9 68.0 57.9 3.8 6.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 9.8 10.9 13.7 135.4 74.2 63.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.7 19.5 112.6 67.1 57.4 4.3 7.3 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 10.4 10.6 14.9 125.8 71.7 61.0 3.5 5.9 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 8.1 8.7 12.7 129.4 72.5 60.9 1.9 3.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 8.2 8.8 14.2 132.2 73.3 62.1 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.6 16.1 122.1 70.4 60.2 4.9 8.6 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.6 17.5 133.9 73.8 63.0 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.6 15.1 108.5 65.7 55.9 3.5 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.4 16.0 132.7 73.4 63.1 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.3 8.6 17.2 126.1 71.7 59.6 1.9 3.9 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 22.1 20.5 18.2 116.9 68.6 58.4 6.3 11.5 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 8.9 9.7 13.7 134.2 73.9 63.0 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------