***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 37.6 48.8 65.6 155.9 84.7 75.5 17.5 24.7 33.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 40.2 52.4 62.9 154.9 84.1 75.6 15.5 23.7 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 56.0 70.8 64.4 148.3 82.3 73.4 22.5 34.2 48.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 51.1 56.3 69.1 132.3 75.9 67.2 28.5 37.7 48.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 48.0 55.8 70.9 135.4 77.9 69.8 27.0 35.8 45.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 45.3 46.0 69.2 121.5 72.3 66.0 19.6 29.1 40.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 36.1 45.7 62.4 154.6 84.0 75.9 16.2 23.2 31.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 73.8 78.0 71.2 126.0 74.1 66.3 51.0 60.9 71.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 42.8 48.7 67.7 130.1 75.9 67.6 22.4 31.0 40.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 52.1 56.8 71.2 126.4 74.4 66.5 30.0 39.3 49.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 46.3 50.2 61.7 124.3 72.6 65.2 23.0 32.8 44.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 47.6 50.7 60.8 123.5 72.5 65.1 25.0 34.4 45.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 48.5 51.6 65.8 124.3 73.8 67.3 26.2 35.2 45.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 66.3 85.1 78.9 145.8 82.9 73.7 31.1 44.4 60.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 52.2 60.4 66.1 135.4 76.1 67.9 16.2 28.6 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 43.1 45.5 62.2 123.3 72.5 65.9 23.8 31.9 40.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 36.1 44.1 61.1 153.0 83.0 75.5 15.8 22.7 30.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 48.5 55.4 80.7 132.2 77.7 69.8 25.5 34.7 45.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 43.6 56.5 63.5 153.2 83.5 74.6 18.7 27.6 38.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 50.0 59.2 101.7 138.9 80.9 72.4 25.7 34.8 45.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 46.5 55.5 65.1 138.5 78.7 70.1 22.6 32.0 43.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 38.2 48.6 63.2 151.2 83.1 74.7 15.7 23.5 32.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 38.5 49.1 65.5 148.8 82.4 73.1 17.7 25.5 34.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 62.1 73.5 73.3 137.7 79.5 71.1 30.5 42.6 56.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 46.5 61.3 78.0 151.8 84.5 75.4 20.0 29.3 40.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 42.2 45.8 67.7 129.5 76.0 69.2 22.5 30.2 38.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 42.0 56.2 74.1 156.1 85.6 76.7 18.4 26.6 36.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 43.8 47.7 64.9 128.2 73.7 66.1 18.5 28.2 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 78.1 90.3 89.2 137.2 80.1 71.8 43.6 57.1 72.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 42.9 55.3 63.5 154.9 84.2 75.3 18.2 26.6 36.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------