***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 2.0 2.9 3.7 1.5 66.6 62.6 0.4 1.7 2.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 1.6 2.4 3.4 1.4 66.1 62.0 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 4.0 4.9 3.7 1.4 66.6 62.9 2.4 3.7 4.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -0.9 0.9 1.5 66.2 63.5 -3.9 -2.3 -0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 65.3 62.8 -0.4 0.5 1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 0.9 0.8 -1.0 1.5 65.8 64.2 -0.9 0.0 0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 1.9 2.8 3.6 1.4 66.4 62.2 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -4.8 -4.1 -0.9 1.2 63.6 61.7 -6.9 -5.3 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 2.1 2.8 1.6 1.4 65.6 62.9 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 1.9 2.4 0.0 1.3 64.4 62.1 0.7 1.6 2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 1.6 2.1 0.6 1.3 64.6 62.5 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 0.5 1.0 -0.1 1.3 64.1 62.2 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.8 -0.5 1.4 64.6 62.7 0.2 1.1 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 2.6 3.1 1.6 1.4 65.1 62.1 1.3 2.3 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.7 1.9 1.4 66.1 63.5 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 2.2 2.7 0.0 1.3 64.7 62.6 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 2.1 2.8 3.5 1.5 67.0 62.4 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 0.0 0.4 -0.7 1.2 63.6 61.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 1.9 2.7 3.4 1.3 65.9 62.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -2.5 -2.1 -2.4 1.1 62.5 60.3 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 1.6 2.3 2.9 1.4 66.0 62.7 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 1.6 2.2 3.2 1.3 66.4 62.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 1.5 2.1 3.2 1.3 65.6 62.0 0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.3 1.2 1.3 65.1 62.3 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.6 66.9 63.3 0.2 1.3 2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 1.4 1.8 -0.7 1.3 64.0 62.6 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 1.9 2.8 3.3 1.5 66.6 62.7 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.4 65.7 63.4 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 63.7 61.2 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 2.0 2.8 3.5 1.4 66.2 62.2 0.5 1.7 2.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------