***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.3 68.8 66.3 -0.9 0.3 1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.2 67.9 65.7 -1.2 -0.1 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 3.5 3.6 2.1 1.3 70.0 67.6 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 -2.2 -1.9 -0.1 1.7 73.9 71.0 -5.1 -3.8 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.6 72.0 69.4 -1.7 -0.7 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 1.7 74.1 71.7 -2.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.2 67.6 65.3 -1.0 0.2 1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -4.9 -4.6 -1.5 1.8 75.1 72.4 -7.8 -6.5 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 1.7 1.8 0.4 1.5 71.6 69.2 -0.6 0.4 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 1.6 1.8 -0.9 1.7 73.6 71.0 -0.6 0.3 1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 1.3 1.3 -0.3 1.5 71.0 68.7 -0.9 0.1 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 0.2 0.3 -0.8 1.6 72.4 70.2 -2.1 -1.1 -0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 1.0 0.9 -1.2 1.4 69.9 68.0 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 2.0 2.2 0.4 1.6 73.0 70.6 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 1.4 1.5 0.7 1.3 69.0 66.5 -0.7 0.4 1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 1.8 1.9 -0.8 1.5 70.8 68.6 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.3 69.0 66.8 -1.0 0.2 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.3 1.9 76.3 73.3 -2.7 -1.8 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.3 69.1 66.9 -1.1 0.1 1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 -2.8 -2.4 -2.6 1.9 77.5 73.8 -6.0 -4.7 -3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 69.5 67.1 -1.0 0.1 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.3 69.2 67.2 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.4 71.3 69.0 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.5 0.3 1.6 73.3 70.9 -1.0 0.0 1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 70.1 67.4 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 1.0 1.1 -1.2 1.6 73.0 71.0 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 67.7 65.3 -1.0 0.2 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 -0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 71.4 68.8 -2.1 -1.2 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 -1.0 -0.5 -1.8 1.9 77.6 74.2 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.2 68.3 66.0 -0.8 0.3 1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------