***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 12.2 14.7 12.1 4.8 87.9 85.6 6.2 8.5 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 11.3 13.7 12.1 4.7 87.4 85.8 5.0 7.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 12.4 14.8 12.8 5.1 87.7 85.7 6.1 8.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 5.4 8.4 9.8 5.6 90.3 86.2 -0.4 1.8 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 12.3 15.4 11.7 5.5 90.1 87.1 6.2 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 11.4 14.1 9.9 5.0 90.0 86.7 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 11.0 13.2 11.8 4.5 87.3 85.7 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 2.2 4.9 11.2 6.2 92.8 90.7 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 12.8 15.8 12.7 5.4 89.7 87.1 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 12.7 15.8 11.7 5.8 90.7 88.4 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 12.7 15.2 12.0 5.2 88.3 85.7 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 11.9 15.1 11.5 5.8 91.8 89.4 6.3 8.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 12.5 14.8 11.3 4.8 88.1 86.1 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 13.5 16.7 13.3 6.0 90.1 88.5 6.6 9.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 11.2 13.4 11.0 4.6 86.0 82.3 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 13.0 15.4 11.2 5.1 88.7 86.1 7.1 9.4 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 10.6 13.0 11.9 4.9 88.6 87.1 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 12.5 16.2 11.9 6.6 93.1 91.2 6.5 8.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 11.6 14.1 12.5 4.9 87.9 86.2 5.1 7.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 7.7 12.0 10.6 7.1 95.9 94.6 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 12.6 15.3 13.1 5.2 89.0 86.5 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 11.6 14.5 12.5 5.2 89.5 87.9 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 12.2 14.9 12.9 5.3 88.5 86.9 5.7 8.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 12.8 15.7 13.1 5.9 90.2 88.4 6.7 9.0 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 11.4 14.2 11.4 5.1 89.6 86.6 5.5 7.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 11.7 15.1 10.3 5.2 93.0 90.5 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 11.8 14.5 11.8 4.8 89.3 86.7 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 12.4 15.3 10.5 5.1 87.9 84.0 5.8 8.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 8.5 12.8 11.8 7.2 94.9 93.4 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 11.1 13.4 12.1 4.7 87.3 85.6 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------