***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 10.2 11.2 10.1 1.4 62.0 59.9 7.1 9.5 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.6 10.1 1.3 61.5 59.6 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.5 10.4 1.3 61.0 59.0 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.0 5.0 7.5 1.6 63.0 60.6 0.7 3.1 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.0 8.8 1.5 62.1 59.9 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.4 7.1 1.4 61.8 59.5 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.2 9.9 1.3 61.0 59.2 6.7 8.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 2.4 2.0 7.7 1.6 63.8 61.6 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.2 9.7 1.4 62.1 59.8 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.3 8.5 1.6 62.7 60.5 8.2 10.6 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.4 9.1 1.4 61.8 59.7 8.2 10.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.7 8.4 1.5 63.0 60.8 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.5 8.4 1.4 62.3 60.2 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.3 9.9 1.6 62.3 60.2 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 10.1 11.0 8.9 1.4 61.4 59.4 6.7 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.9 8.5 1.4 62.0 59.8 8.8 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.4 10.0 9.8 1.3 61.8 59.8 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.3 8.2 1.8 64.5 62.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.8 10.3 1.4 61.6 59.7 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 8.1 7.9 6.3 2.1 67.6 64.9 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.8 10.2 1.4 61.3 59.1 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.9 10.1 1.5 62.6 60.5 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.6 10.5 1.4 61.7 59.7 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.4 9.7 1.5 62.2 60.0 8.3 10.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 10.1 11.0 8.9 1.4 62.1 59.8 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.1 12.1 7.5 1.4 63.3 61.1 8.3 10.5 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 10.3 11.2 9.5 1.4 61.9 59.7 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.9 8.1 1.5 61.9 59.8 7.3 10.0 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.1 7.7 2.0 66.3 63.7 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.6 10.1 1.3 61.4 59.5 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------