***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.1 10.4 1.0 58.8 56.5 7.8 10.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.6 10.3 1.0 59.3 57.1 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.8 10.7 0.9 57.8 55.9 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.5 8.0 0.9 58.2 56.0 0.2 2.5 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.7 8.9 0.9 57.5 55.7 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.1 7.2 1.0 58.2 56.2 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.4 10.3 1.1 59.9 57.4 8.1 10.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.1 1.3 7.8 1.0 58.8 56.7 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.6 9.4 0.9 57.2 55.5 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.7 8.5 1.0 58.3 56.3 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.5 8.9 0.9 57.8 56.1 8.3 10.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.0 8.6 0.9 58.2 56.4 7.9 10.0 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.8 7.8 1.0 59.1 57.1 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.3 9.8 1.1 59.1 56.7 8.8 11.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.8 8.5 0.7 56.4 54.7 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.0 8.4 1.0 58.4 56.5 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.2 10.3 1.1 60.3 57.7 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.7 8.4 1.3 60.6 57.9 8.1 10.4 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.5 10.6 1.0 58.6 56.6 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.3 6.0 1.4 62.5 59.1 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.7 10.1 0.9 57.5 55.6 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.9 10.4 1.1 59.8 57.3 8.4 10.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.0 10.8 0.9 57.9 56.0 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.2 9.6 1.1 58.9 56.7 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.3 8.8 1.0 59.1 56.6 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.4 7.5 0.9 58.3 56.6 8.5 10.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.6 9.7 1.0 59.4 56.9 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.1 8.2 0.8 57.2 55.4 7.6 10.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 7.0 7.6 1.4 61.9 58.9 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.4 10.3 1.0 58.8 56.7 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------