***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.8 12.5 1.5 64.8 60.6 10.3 12.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.8 12.4 1.5 64.8 60.6 10.6 12.3 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 13.2 14.1 12.9 1.4 63.6 59.7 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.3 10.2 1.6 64.2 60.2 2.2 4.4 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.3 14.2 11.1 1.4 62.8 59.2 10.7 12.7 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.7 9.0 1.1 60.0 57.5 9.5 11.5 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.6 13.5 12.3 1.5 65.2 60.9 10.3 12.0 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.5 9.5 1.1 59.9 57.0 -0.6 1.4 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.1 14.0 11.6 1.4 62.5 59.0 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.8 10.4 1.3 61.3 58.0 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.3 14.0 10.9 1.2 61.1 58.0 10.5 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.5 13.0 10.4 1.1 59.5 56.9 9.6 11.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.9 9.6 1.1 59.7 57.3 10.7 12.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.6 11.8 1.5 63.5 60.0 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.9 10.9 1.5 63.8 60.2 10.0 12.2 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.4 10.3 1.2 60.8 57.9 11.1 13.1 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.0 13.0 12.2 1.5 65.6 61.3 9.8 11.5 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.7 10.2 1.4 62.1 58.8 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.9 12.6 1.4 64.4 60.3 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.0 7.4 1.2 61.5 58.1 5.5 7.6 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 13.2 14.1 12.3 1.5 63.4 59.6 10.7 12.6 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.2 14.2 12.4 1.5 65.2 61.0 10.8 12.6 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 13.4 14.4 12.9 1.5 64.0 60.1 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.4 14.2 11.6 1.5 62.9 59.4 10.8 12.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.8 11.0 1.6 65.1 60.9 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 12.9 13.5 9.3 1.0 59.6 57.2 10.2 12.3 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.8 13.9 11.8 1.5 65.2 61.0 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.3 10.4 1.5 63.1 59.5 10.2 12.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.9 9.3 1.4 62.5 59.1 5.2 7.3 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.7 12.4 1.4 64.5 60.4 10.4 12.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------