***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 5.0 7.3 62.2 45.4 36.4 2.8 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.2 4.8 5.5 51.5 39.5 31.7 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.6 6.5 7.7 65.3 46.0 37.3 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 8.9 8.8 65.9 49.3 41.0 5.4 9.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.3 8.7 67.1 47.1 39.2 5.3 9.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.5 5.3 8.6 61.2 44.4 37.4 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.5 5.3 50.8 39.0 31.2 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.5 13.4 9.9 70.9 48.3 40.7 8.3 14.0 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.8 9.6 76.2 52.1 43.5 4.5 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.8 10.3 76.7 51.4 43.1 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.4 8.9 67.9 47.6 39.9 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.9 5.9 8.5 63.5 44.5 37.6 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.3 8.4 60.6 43.7 37.1 3.7 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.3 11.4 10.4 70.9 48.1 39.6 6.4 12.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.6 7.9 61.9 49.6 39.1 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.1 8.4 62.7 46.0 39.1 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.1 4.2 5.3 50.8 39.5 31.2 3.4 5.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.0 11.0 78.7 52.3 44.2 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 4.1 6.2 6.1 55.6 41.2 33.0 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 7.8 11.9 69.3 45.5 38.6 5.2 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.5 8.1 8.8 72.6 50.4 41.6 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.7 5.3 5.7 52.8 39.9 31.2 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.7 6.0 7.4 62.8 44.8 35.9 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.8 11.2 10.1 74.7 50.6 42.3 6.6 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.4 8.4 60.4 43.1 35.5 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.8 8.3 55.8 39.5 33.6 2.9 5.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.9 4.6 7.7 60.0 43.1 35.1 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.0 8.2 63.0 48.8 39.8 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.8 12.6 11.4 75.7 50.2 42.2 7.5 12.4 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.7 5.6 5.9 54.0 41.3 33.0 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------