***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.6 12.8 97.0 60.4 49.1 2.4 4.2 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.9 10.9 92.1 58.4 45.8 1.7 3.6 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.3 12.8 97.7 60.9 50.2 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.1 15.6 108.6 65.3 52.6 3.5 6.3 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.4 15.0 104.8 63.7 51.8 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.4 8.2 16.2 110.9 66.0 52.2 2.3 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.6 11.2 96.1 60.2 47.1 1.8 3.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.4 15.1 17.0 114.1 66.9 53.6 4.9 9.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.9 15.4 102.7 62.6 51.9 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.1 16.7 107.2 64.2 52.5 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.3 14.6 108.9 65.2 52.0 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.8 14.9 114.7 67.3 53.6 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.3 10.7 16.1 112.8 66.8 53.9 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.6 16.8 97.8 60.4 48.9 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 9.3 15.4 112.5 67.5 52.8 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.2 15.1 111.5 66.2 53.1 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.4 10.5 92.0 58.3 45.6 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.1 17.4 104.2 62.7 51.6 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.0 11.4 92.0 58.6 46.6 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.6 6.7 21.8 109.7 65.0 52.8 2.4 4.3 6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.6 7.2 14.1 100.9 62.0 51.2 2.2 4.7 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.7 11.1 91.5 58.3 44.6 1.3 2.7 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.6 12.5 93.3 59.2 48.2 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.2 15.8 101.4 61.8 50.9 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.4 14.5 96.5 60.1 49.6 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.8 6.7 16.4 118.2 68.8 55.1 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.7 13.2 94.5 59.2 47.9 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.8 9.1 15.5 114.5 67.7 53.4 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.8 18.5 103.5 62.2 50.7 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.0 11.5 93.5 59.3 47.1 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------