***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.2 10.9 85.2 56.0 43.4 2.3 3.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.2 9.8 85.6 56.4 43.9 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.8 11.2 89.5 57.7 44.1 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.3 10.3 16.0 110.0 65.9 49.3 4.6 7.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.0 15.6 110.0 66.0 49.4 4.5 7.3 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.9 14.9 105.6 64.0 51.4 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.1 9.6 86.0 56.9 46.1 2.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.7 18.4 15.7 109.7 65.5 50.8 7.9 12.6 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.1 15.2 105.2 64.2 49.4 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.7 15.9 105.9 64.2 50.7 4.6 8.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.5 10.8 14.6 110.2 66.2 50.4 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.8 13.9 109.6 65.7 50.1 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.9 15.3 108.8 65.3 51.2 4.0 6.7 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.0 14.0 86.4 56.1 44.0 3.6 6.7 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.1 7.5 14.4 103.2 64.3 48.8 1.6 4.1 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.0 14.9 109.8 65.9 50.4 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.5 9.5 86.5 57.6 45.4 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.6 15.8 99.8 61.5 49.2 3.8 6.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.7 10.1 85.3 56.1 43.0 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.3 18.9 103.1 62.5 49.1 4.3 7.3 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.3 13.5 99.6 62.1 47.4 3.5 5.9 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.0 9.9 84.8 56.3 43.5 1.9 3.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.0 10.6 84.2 55.2 42.4 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.2 11.5 13.9 94.5 59.8 46.6 4.9 8.6 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.5 13.8 94.0 59.4 46.3 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.5 14.8 108.9 65.2 50.7 3.5 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.1 11.7 87.3 56.7 44.7 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.0 7.0 15.3 109.4 66.1 49.8 1.9 3.9 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.6 15.7 16.2 96.8 59.9 47.8 6.3 11.5 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.4 10.0 84.5 55.7 43.2 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------