***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 14.9 13.3 31.6 60.9 22.6 25.8 17.5 24.7 33.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 12.0 10.5 26.7 56.9 21.2 24.0 15.5 23.7 33.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 19.6 17.3 32.4 63.0 24.2 27.0 22.5 34.2 48.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 26.2 26.8 41.4 68.1 29.8 31.4 28.5 37.7 48.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 24.9 25.6 40.6 70.7 30.0 32.0 27.0 35.8 45.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 19.2 17.4 40.8 71.2 28.5 31.0 19.6 29.1 40.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 13.5 12.4 26.7 58.4 22.6 25.1 16.2 23.2 31.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 48.0 48.9 44.2 71.8 29.6 32.1 51.0 60.9 71.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 21.0 21.1 41.3 71.6 30.3 32.4 22.4 31.0 40.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 28.0 28.2 44.8 72.8 29.8 32.3 30.0 39.3 49.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 20.9 21.2 39.6 70.4 29.3 31.7 23.0 32.8 44.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 22.2 22.3 38.5 69.0 28.2 30.6 25.0 34.4 45.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 23.2 23.6 41.5 70.6 27.7 30.5 26.2 35.2 45.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 24.9 23.6 42.4 64.6 22.7 26.2 31.1 44.4 60.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 16.5 15.9 38.3 66.4 32.4 32.8 16.2 28.6 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 21.4 21.6 39.5 69.9 28.2 30.8 23.8 31.9 40.9 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 13.2 12.0 25.8 57.4 23.0 25.1 15.8 22.7 30.8 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 22.4 22.9 46.0 71.7 27.6 30.9 25.5 34.7 45.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 14.6 12.8 28.0 57.5 21.0 24.0 18.7 27.6 38.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 23.2 23.5 54.7 71.5 28.6 31.5 25.7 34.8 45.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 19.9 19.7 37.4 68.2 27.6 30.2 22.6 32.0 43.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 12.5 11.2 27.3 56.9 22.2 24.2 15.7 23.5 32.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 13.7 12.9 31.0 59.5 21.6 24.7 17.7 25.5 34.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 25.8 26.0 41.2 68.5 26.3 29.3 30.5 42.6 56.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 16.9 15.2 37.8 63.2 23.5 26.8 20.0 29.3 40.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 19.8 20.4 40.4 69.2 28.2 29.8 22.5 30.2 38.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 15.1 13.4 33.5 60.9 21.9 25.3 18.4 26.6 36.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 17.4 17.7 39.8 69.0 31.6 32.7 18.5 28.2 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 38.8 38.5 48.0 70.5 26.2 30.0 43.6 57.1 72.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 13.7 12.9 27.9 57.9 21.5 24.3 18.2 26.6 36.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------