***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 -1.9 -0.8 0.5 -0.9 37.0 38.2 -1.2 0.4 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 -1.4 -0.3 0.5 -0.6 41.2 42.0 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 0.5 1.6 0.3 -0.7 38.3 39.4 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -3.2 -4.4 -1.6 -0.4 44.2 44.5 -5.4 -3.8 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -1.4 -1.7 -0.6 39.8 40.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.2 -3.6 -0.7 40.4 42.9 -2.8 -1.5 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 -1.4 -0.1 0.6 -0.6 41.3 41.9 -0.9 0.6 1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -8.3 -8.1 -3.7 -1.2 33.1 36.0 -8.1 -6.5 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 37.4 38.7 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -1.1 -0.7 -3.1 -1.2 34.0 36.1 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -1.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.7 38.0 40.0 -1.2 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -0.9 37.1 39.5 -2.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 0.3 -1.0 -2.9 -0.8 38.8 41.0 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -0.7 0.0 -1.4 -0.9 37.1 38.8 -0.4 1.0 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.1 48.7 48.5 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.0 -2.3 -0.6 40.8 42.5 -0.6 0.6 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -1.0 0.2 0.6 -0.5 42.8 43.1 -0.6 0.8 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 -3.2 -2.8 -4.2 -1.5 32.2 34.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -1.4 -0.3 0.5 -0.6 41.1 42.0 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -5.7 -6.3 -1.8 30.1 33.5 -5.5 -4.1 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2 -0.8 37.5 38.6 -1.2 0.1 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -1.4 -0.2 0.6 -0.4 43.0 43.4 -1.1 0.3 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -1.6 -0.6 0.2 -0.5 41.1 42.1 -1.3 0.2 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 -1.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.0 36.0 37.6 -1.0 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -1.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 39.5 40.4 -1.2 0.1 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 0.3 -1.0 -2.6 -0.8 38.1 40.6 -1.4 -0.2 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 -1.8 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 38.1 39.1 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -1.2 -1.3 -0.2 46.3 46.5 -2.2 -1.0 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -4.6 -4.2 -5.0 -1.6 31.4 34.1 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -1.4 -0.2 0.6 -0.7 40.0 40.9 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------