***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.2 1.5 -0.6 41.8 42.5 0.5 1.8 3.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -0.1 0.9 1.4 -0.5 43.2 44.3 0.1 1.4 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.2 1.2 -0.6 42.1 43.2 2.5 3.8 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -0.5 43.1 45.1 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.3 -0.8 -0.6 41.9 44.4 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -0.9 -0.2 -2.5 -0.6 42.0 44.5 -0.7 0.3 1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.2 1.3 1.5 -0.4 44.3 44.9 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -4.5 -6.4 -2.6 -1.0 37.7 41.7 -6.9 -5.2 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 0.6 1.5 -0.3 -0.6 41.9 44.0 0.8 2.0 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.2 -2.1 -0.9 38.6 41.8 0.9 1.9 2.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.0 1.0 -1.2 -0.7 39.8 43.6 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 0.9 -0.1 -1.5 -0.8 39.7 43.9 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.0 -1.8 -0.6 41.7 44.6 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.2 1.8 -0.5 -0.8 39.6 42.0 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.8 1.7 -0.1 -0.4 44.5 45.9 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 2.7 1.6 -1.4 -0.6 40.7 44.2 1.1 2.2 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 0.5 1.5 1.5 -0.4 44.2 45.0 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.8 -3.0 -1.2 36.5 39.8 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 2.3 1.1 1.3 -0.5 42.5 43.8 0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -3.5 -4.7 -1.2 36.7 39.6 -3.8 -2.7 -1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 2.0 1.1 0.7 -0.6 42.3 43.5 0.4 1.6 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.9 1.4 -0.5 42.8 44.1 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 0.0 0.8 1.0 -0.5 42.2 43.6 0.1 1.3 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 38.8 41.5 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 0.1 1.0 0.0 -0.5 42.4 43.4 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 1.8 1.0 -1.4 -0.5 42.7 44.6 0.5 1.4 2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -0.1 1.0 0.8 -0.6 42.1 43.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 43.3 45.5 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -2.5 -3.6 -1.2 35.6 39.2 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 2.5 1.4 1.5 -0.5 42.7 43.8 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------