***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 9.1 9.4 8.6 0.4 53.9 53.6 6.5 8.8 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 8.1 7.7 8.2 0.0 49.7 49.8 5.3 7.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 9.3 8.6 8.3 -0.2 47.9 47.9 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 2.7 1.5 5.2 -0.6 44.1 44.3 0.0 2.3 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 9.4 8.6 6.6 -0.3 46.9 46.9 6.6 9.0 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 8.6 8.8 6.1 0.4 54.3 54.0 6.0 8.2 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 7.7 7.9 8.4 0.3 53.5 53.3 5.1 7.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 0.2 -0.7 5.5 -0.6 44.1 44.4 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 9.8 9.3 7.8 -0.1 48.7 48.6 7.0 9.5 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 9.9 8.7 6.4 -0.6 44.9 45.1 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 9.9 9.2 6.9 -0.2 48.6 48.6 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 9.3 8.4 6.3 -0.3 46.7 46.8 6.6 8.8 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 9.7 9.5 6.9 0.1 51.4 51.3 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.8 7.6 6.6 -1.5 36.6 37.4 7.0 9.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 8.3 8.0 7.0 -0.1 48.9 48.9 5.7 8.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 10.3 9.9 6.9 0.0 50.3 50.2 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 7.5 7.1 7.8 0.0 49.6 49.7 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 7.8 5.3 -1.2 38.8 39.4 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 8.4 7.5 8.1 -0.3 46.6 46.8 5.4 7.9 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 3.1 3.2 -1.4 36.8 37.4 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 9.5 9.2 8.3 0.0 49.7 49.6 6.8 9.2 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 8.5 7.1 7.5 -0.6 43.5 43.9 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 9.3 7.5 7.8 -0.8 42.4 42.8 6.1 8.6 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.2 8.1 6.8 -1.1 40.1 40.6 7.0 9.4 11.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 8.4 8.6 7.3 0.4 53.5 53.3 5.8 8.2 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 9.2 9.1 6.1 0.2 52.0 51.9 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 8.7 9.1 8.2 0.5 55.4 55.0 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 9.3 8.2 6.1 -0.5 45.6 45.7 6.1 8.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.1 3.6 4.4 -1.4 37.1 37.7 3.1 5.2 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 8.1 7.9 8.4 0.1 50.9 50.8 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------