***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 10.1 8.1 8.7 -0.8 41.4 42.1 6.9 9.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 9.9 8.3 8.8 -0.7 42.7 43.3 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.8 8.5 8.7 -1.1 39.4 40.5 7.6 9.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.6 1.8 6.9 -0.7 43.2 43.8 0.3 2.7 5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.2 8.5 6.8 -1.3 38.2 39.4 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.7 7.6 5.1 -1.6 35.5 37.2 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.6 8.1 8.7 -0.6 43.4 43.8 6.8 8.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -1.8 5.2 -1.8 33.5 35.4 -1.9 0.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.4 7.3 -1.5 36.4 37.8 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.2 6.0 -1.8 34.0 35.8 8.1 10.4 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.5 8.6 6.5 -1.5 36.5 38.0 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.9 6.1 -1.7 34.2 36.2 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.5 5.6 -1.8 33.3 35.3 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.3 7.1 -1.6 35.2 37.0 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 9.8 9.0 7.7 -0.2 48.5 48.4 6.7 9.2 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.1 6.2 -1.5 36.3 37.8 8.6 11.0 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 9.4 7.9 8.6 -0.6 43.8 44.2 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.5 5.1 -2.0 31.6 33.7 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.0 8.1 8.8 -0.8 41.4 42.2 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.7 3.0 2.7 -2.1 29.4 31.6 3.5 5.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.0 8.5 8.1 -1.2 38.3 39.4 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.0 8.3 8.6 -0.7 42.5 43.2 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.9 8.5 8.6 -1.1 39.1 40.3 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.3 6.9 -1.7 34.6 36.3 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.0 8.3 7.3 -0.8 42.4 43.0 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 7.7 8.2 5.3 -1.7 33.3 35.5 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.4 8.6 8.0 -0.8 41.9 42.5 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.7 8.9 7.3 -0.7 44.0 44.4 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 2.8 3.3 4.0 -2.0 31.1 33.2 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.9 8.2 8.8 -0.8 42.2 42.8 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------