***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 7.4 8.5 8.9 -1.3 34.5 37.6 8.3 10.4 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 8.0 9.1 8.9 -1.2 35.6 38.4 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 8.1 9.2 9.0 -1.4 34.4 37.8 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -0.2 1.2 7.3 -1.1 37.7 40.1 0.6 2.9 5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 8.2 9.2 7.3 -1.5 34.3 37.8 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 6.9 8.0 5.6 -1.4 35.6 38.3 7.7 9.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.8 8.8 -1.2 35.1 37.8 8.5 10.5 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -1.9 -1.5 5.5 -2.0 30.0 34.1 -1.2 0.7 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 8.2 8.9 7.7 -1.7 32.7 36.8 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 8.1 8.6 6.3 -1.9 30.6 34.9 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.8 6.9 -1.7 32.9 36.6 8.8 10.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.5 8.1 6.5 -1.8 31.6 35.3 8.3 10.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 8.5 9.2 6.0 -1.7 32.2 35.7 9.3 11.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 8.4 9.3 7.6 -1.6 33.4 37.1 9.2 11.4 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.4 9.1 8.0 -0.7 41.5 42.7 7.9 10.2 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 8.7 9.5 6.6 -1.6 33.8 37.1 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.6 8.7 -1.2 35.5 38.2 8.2 10.3 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.7 8.0 5.5 -2.1 29.3 33.7 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.8 9.0 9.1 -1.2 35.8 38.8 8.6 10.8 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 3.4 3.6 2.9 -2.3 26.5 30.6 4.4 6.3 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 8.3 9.2 8.4 -1.5 33.6 37.3 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 7.9 9.3 8.9 -1.1 36.5 39.1 8.8 11.0 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 8.3 9.5 9.0 -1.3 35.6 38.8 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.5 9.1 7.4 -1.8 32.1 36.2 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 7.5 8.6 7.5 -1.3 35.1 38.1 8.3 10.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 8.2 9.0 5.8 -1.7 32.1 35.8 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 7.9 8.9 8.1 -1.4 34.3 37.4 8.7 10.8 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 7.2 8.9 7.7 -1.0 39.0 41.0 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.3 4.4 -2.2 28.9 33.3 3.9 6.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 7.9 8.9 9.0 -1.2 35.3 38.2 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------