***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.4 9.3 -0.6 41.1 42.5 8.6 10.3 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.2 9.2 -0.6 40.5 41.9 8.5 10.1 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.4 9.6 9.2 -0.8 38.0 39.8 9.1 10.7 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.8 2.2 7.2 -0.7 40.5 41.7 1.4 3.1 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.6 7.6 -0.9 37.7 39.5 9.1 10.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.4 8.8 6.2 -0.7 40.1 41.2 8.2 9.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.0 9.2 -0.5 42.1 43.3 8.2 9.7 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.0 -0.8 6.0 -1.3 32.6 34.9 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.6 9.6 8.2 -1.0 36.6 38.6 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.3 6.8 -1.3 33.2 35.6 9.2 10.8 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.6 7.3 -1.0 36.9 38.8 9.2 10.9 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.9 6.9 -1.1 34.8 36.8 8.7 10.2 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.8 6.7 -1.0 36.4 38.2 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.3 7.8 -1.4 31.3 34.2 9.5 11.2 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.6 9.6 8.1 -0.3 46.2 46.6 8.1 10.0 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.3 7.1 -0.9 38.0 39.6 9.8 11.4 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.6 8.9 -0.6 41.1 42.3 7.9 9.4 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.6 8.6 5.9 -1.6 29.1 32.1 9.0 10.6 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.0 9.2 -0.7 38.7 40.4 8.5 10.1 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.1 3.9 3.5 -1.7 26.6 29.3 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.7 8.8 -0.8 38.2 40.0 9.2 10.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.1 9.0 -0.7 38.4 40.0 8.6 10.2 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.4 9.1 -0.9 36.0 38.2 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.3 7.7 -1.3 31.9 34.7 9.4 10.9 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.4 7.9 -0.5 42.1 43.3 8.5 10.1 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.5 6.4 -0.9 36.6 38.3 9.2 10.6 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.6 8.6 -0.5 41.8 43.1 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.2 9.5 7.6 -0.6 42.0 42.9 8.4 10.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.1 4.9 -1.7 28.2 31.2 4.5 6.1 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.1 9.3 -0.6 40.5 41.9 8.4 10.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------