***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 11.0 13.2 19.2 155.6 78.7 73.6 2.8 5.2 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 9.9 13.3 19.3 170.4 81.8 74.2 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 13.7 19.4 20.8 174.3 82.5 76.2 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 15.2 17.4 21.1 153.4 78.2 73.2 4.0 7.4 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 11.5 14.4 20.8 163.7 80.4 74.6 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 12.9 15.9 18.5 158.6 79.4 73.3 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 9.9 12.9 18.2 160.9 79.9 72.7 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 18.2 23.3 21.2 171.5 82.1 76.1 6.0 10.0 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 10.8 14.7 20.7 170.6 81.8 75.6 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 12.6 17.1 21.9 174.4 82.7 76.5 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 10.7 14.0 19.7 169.3 81.5 75.3 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 15.6 20.6 19.1 170.6 81.6 75.9 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 14.2 18.1 19.7 169.7 81.6 76.1 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 16.4 27.7 27.6 211.5 88.0 81.4 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 17.8 22.4 22.7 166.0 80.3 75.0 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 12.3 15.5 19.5 167.1 81.0 75.1 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 10.7 14.8 18.9 168.7 81.6 72.9 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 10.8 15.6 24.2 177.2 83.4 77.0 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 11.1 16.1 20.8 182.0 83.7 76.4 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 13.6 17.3 25.2 163.6 80.3 75.3 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 12.2 15.8 20.4 168.5 81.3 75.8 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 10.1 15.3 21.2 187.3 84.9 75.6 2.8 5.1 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 9.6 15.0 23.1 197.0 86.0 79.1 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 11.9 18.2 24.1 187.5 84.9 78.0 2.8 5.5 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 13.0 14.7 20.9 143.2 76.0 71.7 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 13.9 19.2 20.5 183.0 83.6 79.1 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 10.8 12.5 19.8 145.3 76.4 71.8 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 12.8 15.5 20.9 162.8 79.9 74.3 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 18.0 25.1 25.3 177.1 83.0 77.2 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 11.5 15.8 19.4 167.7 81.1 74.4 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------