***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 8.0 12.3 14.3 120.6 69.7 61.9 3.2 6.3 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.0 9.4 12.6 99.9 62.6 55.4 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 14.1 14.2 14.8 119.4 69.2 62.8 3.2 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.7 15.9 121.9 70.0 63.7 5.1 8.6 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 15.8 18.2 17.9 140.4 75.8 69.3 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 12.1 14.7 20.5 154.4 80.2 70.9 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.8 12.6 98.4 61.8 54.7 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 25.2 28.9 19.2 142.7 76.6 70.3 8.6 14.4 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.5 15.2 19.3 148.1 78.0 71.5 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 14.4 17.9 20.9 151.5 79.2 72.9 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 11.7 13.7 17.2 144.9 77.2 70.3 3.5 6.2 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 11.1 12.3 16.3 139.3 75.6 68.9 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 12.6 15.2 18.4 151.1 79.0 71.4 3.8 6.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 20.7 22.7 20.0 130.8 73.0 66.9 4.7 9.8 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.3 10.3 13.5 103.3 63.5 57.4 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 11.8 14.1 17.3 144.4 77.2 69.9 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.0 11.9 95.3 60.7 53.4 3.1 5.3 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 14.4 17.7 23.6 151.0 79.3 73.4 3.8 7.1 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 8.5 10.6 13.3 104.1 64.0 57.1 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 14.3 15.0 23.7 130.4 72.2 67.3 4.8 8.2 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.5 15.5 17.0 138.1 75.1 68.5 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.2 8.2 12.5 97.7 61.1 53.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 7.6 10.8 15.0 113.9 67.3 60.9 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 18.1 20.2 20.0 137.9 75.2 69.3 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 12.2 12.8 16.6 122.7 70.3 63.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 11.6 13.0 16.6 138.8 75.5 68.1 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.5 11.2 15.7 119.7 69.3 62.0 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 11.6 11.4 15.3 119.6 69.1 62.4 2.7 5.8 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 20.7 23.9 24.3 144.0 77.3 71.6 6.6 11.3 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.2 10.1 13.0 104.7 64.3 57.2 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------