***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 5.4 5.8 15.3 129.6 72.5 63.1 1.9 3.2 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.9 15.1 130.8 72.9 63.8 1.5 3.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.5 10.5 15.4 125.7 71.4 62.4 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.1 15.6 119.1 69.7 59.7 3.9 6.6 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.8 8.9 16.3 123.0 70.6 59.8 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 5.4 7.9 16.3 117.8 68.7 59.5 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.6 6.1 15.1 130.8 72.9 64.2 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 15.2 17.5 19.5 140.6 75.6 63.3 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.2 9.9 16.8 126.1 71.5 60.1 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.9 13.0 19.2 132.6 73.4 61.7 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.1 13.2 16.0 128.2 72.2 60.6 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.6 9.6 16.1 134.1 73.8 62.0 2.8 5.0 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.0 10.6 15.9 123.0 70.6 60.6 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 12.7 14.1 19.3 129.3 72.5 63.1 3.4 6.6 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.6 8.9 13.3 112.3 67.9 56.9 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.2 9.5 15.1 123.5 70.8 59.9 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 5.5 6.1 14.3 132.8 73.5 64.2 1.8 3.1 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 9.9 11.5 21.8 135.2 74.1 63.3 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 7.4 8.0 15.2 129.4 72.5 63.4 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.7 9.7 26.0 149.3 78.0 66.1 2.4 4.3 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.9 10.0 15.8 130.6 72.8 62.4 2.2 4.5 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.5 5.7 14.7 130.0 72.8 63.6 1.3 2.7 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 7.5 8.1 15.8 127.1 71.9 62.9 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 8.0 13.3 18.8 128.3 72.2 62.5 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 5.1 8.5 17.6 131.1 73.0 63.5 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 6.1 6.7 15.5 129.1 72.4 62.7 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 7.6 8.5 17.0 131.6 73.1 63.6 2.3 4.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.6 9.2 14.2 116.2 68.9 57.8 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 15.4 18.8 23.8 142.1 76.0 65.0 4.1 7.9 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.4 15.2 128.2 72.2 63.3 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------