***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.6 10.5 107.5 65.2 53.8 2.6 4.8 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.6 10.3 106.9 65.4 53.4 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.9 10.7 102.9 63.0 52.1 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.2 13.6 105.3 64.7 53.3 4.9 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.9 13.2 105.4 64.2 53.4 5.0 8.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.8 9.9 15.9 110.1 66.1 53.5 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.5 10.3 107.8 65.8 54.3 3.1 5.5 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.5 22.1 14.8 113.9 67.4 55.3 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.7 12.8 104.1 63.8 53.3 4.7 7.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.3 14.9 14.4 107.5 65.0 54.4 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 13.0 13.2 109.4 65.8 54.1 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.9 14.3 13.2 114.2 67.6 55.0 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.2 14.2 108.9 65.6 54.3 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.0 13.2 102.8 62.9 52.1 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.8 10.1 13.5 106.0 65.7 51.6 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.3 13.5 107.2 65.1 53.5 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.1 7.6 10.0 107.7 65.7 52.8 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.5 15.6 107.3 64.6 54.3 4.8 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.7 10.4 105.5 64.5 52.3 2.5 5.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.2 17.9 110.2 66.0 54.0 5.1 8.6 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.9 11.4 102.4 63.1 52.3 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.8 10.7 112.2 67.2 53.0 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.9 10.8 102.7 63.0 51.2 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.2 13.3 103.5 63.0 53.0 6.1 10.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.9 8.2 12.8 107.0 64.9 54.0 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.9 13.4 112.5 67.3 54.5 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.4 12.0 109.2 65.7 54.7 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.8 8.2 13.8 105.3 65.2 52.6 2.1 4.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.7 22.3 16.4 108.5 65.3 54.2 8.5 14.6 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.0 10.4 107.1 65.4 53.8 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------