***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 37.8 41.9 59.3 129.6 75.2 68.4 17.4 25.4 34.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 38.3 41.5 57.3 127.0 73.6 66.9 15.6 24.3 34.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 54.5 62.9 61.7 131.3 76.5 69.7 22.5 34.7 49.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 51.8 54.5 66.2 125.3 72.7 66.9 29.0 38.4 49.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 49.3 55.2 68.2 133.1 76.9 70.6 26.1 35.4 45.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 45.0 51.4 71.2 133.8 77.4 71.3 19.3 28.8 40.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 35.1 36.7 56.1 124.3 72.1 65.6 16.4 23.8 32.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 77.7 88.2 74.7 141.6 81.9 74.5 51.5 62.0 73.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 45.4 53.2 69.6 137.0 79.4 72.6 22.6 31.5 41.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 56.2 66.2 76.4 140.9 81.6 74.5 30.5 40.2 51.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 49.5 58.8 66.0 137.6 79.1 71.6 23.9 33.8 45.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 50.5 59.4 64.6 139.3 80.1 72.9 25.9 35.2 46.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 49.6 56.5 68.2 137.1 78.9 72.8 25.6 34.8 45.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 70.0 87.4 80.1 142.8 83.1 75.0 32.1 45.7 61.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 54.0 54.6 63.0 122.7 71.1 64.4 17.9 30.5 47.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 44.3 50.4 65.4 134.9 77.7 70.8 23.6 32.0 41.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 33.7 36.3 55.0 126.0 73.4 66.2 15.8 23.0 31.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 50.9 62.1 85.1 142.2 83.0 75.9 25.5 34.7 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 44.1 49.9 59.7 130.3 75.6 68.6 18.4 28.3 40.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 51.0 60.0 92.7 137.6 80.6 74.1 25.9 35.3 46.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 47.6 54.9 64.7 135.5 78.1 71.8 22.4 31.8 43.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 36.6 42.4 59.2 131.4 77.0 68.6 15.7 23.6 33.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 40.4 47.5 64.7 135.2 78.7 71.2 18.0 26.4 36.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 64.8 77.8 76.2 138.9 81.2 73.9 30.7 43.3 57.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 43.9 48.0 67.9 126.9 74.0 68.0 19.8 29.3 40.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 43.4 50.5 66.0 140.2 79.7 74.2 22.0 30.1 39.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 39.9 44.1 64.4 127.3 74.2 67.6 18.2 26.8 37.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 44.6 47.7 64.2 125.9 72.8 66.3 19.2 29.1 41.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 80.4 95.8 89.7 142.4 82.9 76.0 44.2 57.5 72.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 41.3 44.7 58.0 127.3 73.9 67.1 17.8 26.9 37.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------