***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 4.3 4.4 2.9 84.3 81.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 2.5 3.8 4.0 2.9 83.8 81.3 -1.8 -0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 4.8 6.1 4.0 2.9 85.5 82.7 0.4 2.1 3.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 -1.0 1.4 1.7 3.2 90.0 86.9 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 2.0 3.5 1.8 2.9 87.7 84.5 -2.0 -0.5 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 1.1 2.8 0.4 3.4 89.7 87.2 -2.9 -1.4 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 2.6 3.8 4.1 2.9 83.3 80.7 -1.5 0.2 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 -3.4 -1.8 0.6 3.1 85.8 83.5 -8.9 -6.8 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 2.8 4.0 2.4 2.7 84.2 81.2 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 2.8 3.9 1.2 3.0 85.1 82.6 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 2.7 4.3 1.6 3.0 88.5 85.1 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 1.1 2.4 1.2 2.9 86.4 83.6 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 2.1 3.2 0.8 2.9 86.9 84.1 -1.5 -0.2 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 3.1 4.1 2.4 2.9 83.8 81.7 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 3.0 4.6 2.1 3.2 89.0 86.1 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 3.1 4.8 1.2 3.0 88.9 85.8 -0.7 0.7 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 2.5 3.5 3.8 2.6 80.6 78.5 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 0.5 1.5 0.8 3.4 85.2 83.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 2.9 4.2 3.9 2.9 84.3 81.8 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 -1.5 -0.1 -0.7 3.5 84.8 83.0 -6.7 -4.8 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 2.5 3.7 3.4 2.8 84.5 81.3 -1.5 0.1 1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 2.3 3.2 3.6 2.5 80.1 78.3 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 2.4 3.6 3.6 2.9 84.9 82.5 -1.9 -0.2 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 2.4 3.5 2.3 3.1 85.6 83.4 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 2.5 4.1 2.7 3.2 88.6 85.3 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 1.9 3.0 0.7 2.5 83.8 81.4 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 3.1 4.7 3.6 3.0 85.6 82.4 -1.8 0.1 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 1.5 3.1 1.8 3.1 89.1 86.2 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 0.3 1.8 0.3 3.5 86.0 84.3 -4.7 -2.8 -1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 3.0 4.4 4.2 2.9 84.5 81.8 -1.4 0.4 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------