***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9999.0 3.8 3.6 1.9 85.3 82.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 2.0 3.0 3.3 1.9 85.1 82.1 -1.0 0.2 1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 4.3 5.4 3.2 1.9 86.0 83.1 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 2.0 86.6 84.2 -4.8 -3.5 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 1.2 1.9 1.1 1.8 83.8 81.5 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 0.5 1.4 -0.5 2.2 86.8 84.6 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 2.2 3.1 3.3 1.9 84.9 81.8 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 -4.4 -3.4 -0.1 2.1 85.6 83.3 -7.6 -6.3 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 2.3 2.9 1.6 1.7 81.8 79.5 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 2.1 2.8 0.4 2.0 83.4 81.2 -0.4 0.6 1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 1.9 2.7 0.8 1.8 84.6 82.1 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 0.7 1.5 0.5 1.8 84.0 81.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 1.5 2.1 0.0 1.7 82.3 80.1 -1.0 0.0 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 2.7 3.5 1.6 1.9 84.0 81.6 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 2.3 3.1 1.4 1.9 85.9 83.7 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 2.5 3.2 0.4 1.7 84.4 81.9 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 2.3 3.0 3.0 1.8 82.3 79.5 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 0.0 0.8 -0.2 2.3 84.7 82.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 2.2 3.2 3.2 1.9 85.6 82.6 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 -2.3 -0.9 -1.6 2.5 87.4 84.2 -5.7 -4.4 -3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 1.9 2.7 2.7 1.7 83.0 80.3 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 1.7 2.4 2.9 1.6 81.8 79.0 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 1.7 2.7 2.8 1.9 86.1 83.3 -1.0 0.0 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 1.9 2.7 1.5 2.0 84.7 82.4 -0.7 0.3 1.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 1.9 2.8 2.0 2.0 86.8 84.0 -0.9 0.2 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 1.4 1.9 0.0 1.5 80.5 78.4 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 2.3 3.4 2.8 1.9 85.3 82.3 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.9 85.4 83.1 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 -0.5 0.7 -0.6 2.5 87.0 84.2 -3.6 -2.4 -1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 2.4 3.5 3.4 1.9 85.9 82.7 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------