***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 9999.0 13.9 12.1 3.8 85.6 84.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 12.2 14.0 12.2 3.9 86.1 84.9 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 13.4 15.1 12.5 3.9 85.4 84.1 6.7 9.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 5.6 6.7 8.6 2.8 77.0 75.0 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 13.4 14.7 10.6 3.6 83.3 81.6 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 11.9 12.5 8.4 2.8 78.0 76.7 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 11.8 13.7 12.0 4.0 86.9 85.7 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 2.5 3.1 9.1 3.1 80.3 78.8 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 13.9 15.4 11.9 3.9 84.7 83.3 7.4 9.8 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 13.4 14.7 10.4 3.6 82.6 81.1 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 13.7 14.8 10.6 3.5 82.6 81.2 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 12.3 13.2 9.6 3.1 80.2 78.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 13.2 13.9 9.7 3.0 80.4 79.2 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 14.2 15.8 12.1 4.1 84.4 83.1 7.2 9.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 10.9 11.7 9.3 2.2 71.8 70.2 5.8 8.3 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 13.9 14.8 10.0 3.2 81.2 79.8 8.0 10.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 11.3 13.0 11.8 4.0 86.6 85.5 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 13.2 14.5 10.0 3.6 82.8 81.3 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 12.6 14.3 12.4 4.0 85.9 84.7 5.7 8.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 7.7 8.4 7.3 2.9 79.4 77.6 3.3 5.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 13.6 15.1 12.2 3.9 84.5 83.0 7.2 9.6 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 12.5 14.2 12.0 3.9 86.1 84.9 5.8 8.3 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 13.2 14.9 12.5 4.0 85.5 84.2 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 13.8 15.2 11.8 3.9 84.2 82.8 7.4 9.8 12.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 12.5 13.7 10.5 3.5 83.1 81.5 6.1 8.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 12.0 12.4 8.3 2.4 77.0 75.7 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 12.8 14.4 11.4 3.8 85.4 84.0 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 12.4 13.3 9.1 2.5 74.2 72.5 6.3 9.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 8.9 10.1 9.1 3.5 83.0 81.4 3.6 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 12.2 13.9 12.3 3.9 86.2 84.9 5.7 8.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------