***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 12.0 11.9 1.1 61.9 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 11.7 12.6 11.8 1.1 62.6 60.1 9.2 11.2 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.5 11.9 0.9 60.1 58.0 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 3.8 4.1 9.8 0.7 57.6 56.3 1.0 3.1 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.2 10.1 0.7 56.9 55.6 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.4 8.1 0.5 55.0 53.7 8.1 9.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.3 12.3 11.8 1.2 63.5 60.8 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.5 8.6 0.6 56.5 55.1 -0.9 0.8 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.1 10.6 0.7 56.6 55.3 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.1 9.4 0.6 56.2 54.9 9.3 11.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.9 9.7 0.6 56.1 55.0 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.3 9.4 0.5 55.8 54.6 8.8 10.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.1 8.8 0.5 55.6 54.3 9.7 11.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.5 10.6 0.7 56.9 55.5 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 11.1 11.4 10.0 0.7 57.5 56.4 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.3 9.3 0.5 55.4 54.3 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 11.0 11.9 11.5 1.1 62.7 60.2 8.6 10.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.9 8.9 0.7 56.6 55.2 9.1 11.1 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.4 11.9 1.0 61.4 59.1 9.0 11.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.7 6.5 0.9 59.7 57.3 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.4 11.3 0.8 58.2 56.6 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 11.8 12.6 11.6 1.0 60.9 58.7 9.2 11.3 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.7 11.8 0.9 59.6 57.6 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.4 10.5 0.7 57.0 55.6 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 11.3 12.0 10.3 1.0 60.5 58.5 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.8 8.5 0.5 55.9 54.4 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.4 11.2 1.1 62.0 59.7 9.1 11.0 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 11.5 11.6 9.9 0.6 56.0 55.0 8.4 10.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.3 7.9 0.8 58.2 56.4 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 11.4 12.3 11.9 1.1 62.5 59.9 9.0 10.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------