***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 13.9 12.3 1.9 80.4 77.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 12.4 13.5 12.4 2.0 82.1 78.7 8.7 10.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 13.0 13.8 12.5 1.9 79.2 76.0 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.5 9.8 1.4 71.7 69.3 1.5 3.3 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 13.1 13.5 10.7 1.7 75.4 72.4 9.3 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.6 12.0 8.9 1.5 72.7 69.8 8.4 9.9 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 12.1 13.3 12.3 2.1 83.2 79.7 8.4 10.0 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 2.3 2.5 9.3 1.6 75.1 71.6 -0.7 0.6 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 13.2 13.6 11.5 1.8 76.6 73.4 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 13.1 13.5 10.3 1.7 75.8 72.4 9.4 11.0 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 13.1 13.6 10.5 1.7 75.6 72.5 9.4 11.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 12.3 12.6 10.0 1.6 74.6 71.3 8.9 10.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 13.1 13.4 9.7 1.6 74.9 71.6 9.7 11.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 13.4 14.1 11.6 1.8 77.4 74.3 9.7 11.3 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.3 10.1 1.2 68.8 66.9 8.3 10.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 13.5 13.8 10.1 1.6 74.3 71.3 10.0 11.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 11.8 12.8 12.1 2.1 82.7 79.4 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 12.8 13.3 9.8 1.8 76.7 72.9 9.2 10.7 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 12.5 13.5 12.5 2.0 80.9 77.7 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 8.1 8.6 7.3 1.7 77.5 73.0 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 13.1 13.7 12.0 1.8 77.3 74.1 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 12.7 13.6 12.2 1.9 80.8 77.7 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 13.1 13.9 12.5 1.9 79.3 76.2 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.5 11.4 1.8 77.2 73.9 9.6 11.0 12.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 12.4 13.0 10.7 1.8 77.6 74.5 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 12.5 12.8 9.1 1.4 73.9 70.4 9.3 10.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 12.6 13.5 11.6 2.0 80.5 77.0 9.0 10.5 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 12.7 12.9 10.0 1.3 69.2 67.2 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 8.2 8.8 8.8 1.9 78.2 74.0 4.7 6.2 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 12.2 13.3 12.5 2.0 81.7 78.4 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------